Search results for "Population Modeling"
showing 9 items of 9 documents
Climate driven life histories: the case of the Mediterranean Storm petrel
2014
Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rai…
Chemically Stressed Bacterial Communities in Anaerobic Digesters Exhibit Resilience and Ecological Flexibility
2020
Anaerobic digestion is a technology known for its potential in terms of methane production. During the digestion process, multiple metabolites of high value are synthesized. However, recent works have demonstrated the high robustness and resilience of the involved microbiomes; these attributes make it difficult to manipulate them in such a way that a specific metabolite is predominantly produced. Therefore, an exact understanding of the manipulability of anaerobic microbiomes may open up a treasure box for bio-based industries. In the present work, the effect of nalidixic acid, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), and sodium phosphate on the microbiome of digested sewage sludge from a water treatmen…
Living on the edge: assessing the extinction risk of critically endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy
2012
Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information ava…
Dynamics of Two Picophytoplankton Groups in Mediterranean Sea: Analysis of the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum by a Stochastic Advection-Reaction-Diffusion …
2013
A stochastic advection-reaction-diffusion model with terms of multiplicative white Gaussian noise, valid for weakly mixed waters, is studied to obtain the vertical stationary spatial distributions of two groups of picophytoplankton, i.e., picoeukaryotes and Prochlorococcus, which account about for 60% of total chlorophyll on average in Mediterranean Sea. By numerically solving the equations of the model, we analyze the one-dimensional spatio-temporal dynamics of the total picophytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration along the water column at different depths. In particular, we integrate the equations over a time interval long enough, obtaining the steady spatial distributions for th…
Invasion Ability and Disease Dynamics of Environmentally Growing Opportunistic Pathogens under Outside-Host Competition
2014
Most theories of the evolution of virulence concentrate on obligatory host-pathogen relationship. Yet, many pathogens replicate in the environment outside-host where they compete with non-pathogenic forms. Thus, replication and competition in the outside-host environment may have profound influence on the evolution of virulence and disease dynamics. These environmentally growing opportunistic pathogens are also a logical step towards obligatory pathogenicity. Efficient treatment methods against these diseases, such as columnaris disease in fishes, are lacking because of their opportunist nature. We present a novel epidemiological model in which replication and competition in the outside-hos…
Ancient DNA reveals prehistoric gene-flow from Siberia in the complex human population history of North East Europe.
2013
North East Europe harbors a high diversity of cultures and languages, suggesting a complex genetic history. Archaeological, anthropological, and genetic research has revealed a series of influences from Western and Eastern Eurasia in the past. While genetic data from modern-day populations is commonly used to make inferences about their origins and past migrations, ancient DNA provides a powerful test of such hypotheses by giving a snapshot of the past genetic diversity. In order to better understand the dynamics that have shaped the gene pool of North East Europeans, we generated and analyzed 34 mitochondrial genotypes from the skeletal remains of three archaeological sites in northwest Ru…
An Empirical Evaluation of the Utility of Convex Hull and Standard Ellipse Areas for Assessing Population Niche Widths from Stable Isotope Data
2013
Stable isotope analyses are increasingly employed to characterise population niche widths. The convex hull area (TA) in a δ¹³C–δ¹⁵N biplot has been used as a measure of isotopic niche width, but concerns exist over its dependence on sample size and associated difficulties in among-population comparisons. Recently a more robust method was proposed for estimating and comparing isotopic niche widths using standard ellipse areas (SEA), but this approach has yet to be tested with empirical stable isotope data. The two methods measure different kind of isotopic niche areas, but both are now widely used to characterise isotopic niche widths of populations. We used simulated data and an extensive e…
Outside-host growth of pathogens attenuates epidemiological outbreaks.
2012
Opportunist saprotrophic pathogens differ from obligatory pathogens due to their capability in host-independent growth in environmental reservoirs. Thus, the outside-host environment potentially influences host-pathogen dynamics. Despite the socio-economical importance of these pathogens, theory on their dynamics is practically missing. We analyzed a novel epidemiological model that couples outside-host density-dependent growth to host-pathogen dynamics. Parameterization was based on columnaris disease, a major hazard in fresh water fish farms caused by saprotrophic Flavobacterium columnare. Stability analysis and numerical simulations revealed that the outside-host growth maintains high pr…
Contrasting age-specific recruitment and survival at different spatial scales: A case study with the European storm petrel
2009
Evolutionary studies on optimal decisions or conservation guidelines are often derived by generalising patterns from a single population, while inter-population variability in life-history traits is seldom considered. We investigated here how survival and recruitment probabilities changed with age at different geographical scales using the encounter histories of 5523 European storm petrels from three Mediterranean colonies, and also how our estimates of these parameters might be expected to affect population growth rates using population matrix models. We recorded similar patterns among colonies, but also important biological differences. Local survival, recruitment and breeding success inc…